Latest UK climate report indicates environmental shift towards warmer wetter weather

Following the July published ‘State of the UK Climate report’ from the Meteorological Office, many agronomists, including NIAB’s Regional Agronomist for the North Patrick Stephenson, agree that its findings indicate the UK’s baseline agricultural environment is still heavily oriented towards Septoria tritici.

Patrick says: “Although we are still a maritime country with a temperate climate largely influenced by the gulf stream, it’s evident that the UK’s winters are becoming milder and wetter, with summers trending hotter and drier. UK climate projections also tell us that the frequency of extremely wet months has roughly doubled in recent years.

“With warmer winters and early springs potentially up to 30% wetter (given a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture) we unfortunately now have a perfect environment for Septoria tritici, the most economically damaging wheat disease, to survive and proliferate in UK wheat crops.

“As the current chair of the Recommended List (RL) committee, when I look at the winter wheat list most varieties have a current Septoria rating of 6. Whilst I believe breeders have done a good job in improving the background resistance of their varieties, I still have some concerns.

“Firstly, in a sustained period of warm, wet conditions, the best fungicide programmes, even when applied quickly, will still let some Septoria into the crop.

“Secondly, when we assess RL varieties on their Septoria ratings we’re basing them on a drilling date in early October. Any farmer drilling earlier than that, for example in September, needs to understand that the varieties rating is automatically lowered, so they must factor that in when making their variety decision. Whilst early drilling can offer benefits, it’s also a way of building up a potential reservoir of disease that can subsequently become a yield robber in the spring and summer months if, and when, the disease gets its optimum weather conditions. 

“On the whole, I’d say we’ve been pretty lucky to experience historically lower Septoria pressure across much of the UK in 3 of the last 5 seasons due to extended hot, dry conditions. And farmers have also generally enjoyed the right conditions to spray quickly when they’ve needed to. However, it would be very dangerous to accept this as the ‘new normal’ and forget the Septoria risk based on unusually favourable weather.

“Taking all these factors into account, I would certainly advise every grower to include at least one variety with a Septoria score of 7 or more in their winter wheat rotation – with growers based in higher rainfall regions such as the north and west potentially opting for 2 varieties with robust disease packages offering them the best starting point for reduced risk.

“With an annual area of around 750,000 ha, equating to 45% of the total winter wheat area, the Group 4 sector is currently the most popular category amongst UK wheat growers. Factoring in all the key elements including overall disease resistance, yield potential and flexibility in terms of drilling dates and first wheat/second wheat positioning, I believe a variety like Sparkler ticks the right boxes. With a 7.2 on Septoria and a 7 for yellow rust it offers higher overall resistance against the two key disease challenges that effect most growers.

“Given it’s also the highest yielding Group 4 soft wheat, there’s no trade off on yield either for growers prioritising Septoria or yellow rust control” he concludes.

Ben Urquhart, Technical Manager with Sparkler breeder Elsoms Seeds, agrees with Patrick’s analysis and highlights shifting seasonal windows away from the UK’s traditional 4 season calendar as a major challenge for arable farmers.

Ben adds” It’s pretty clear that the UK has been moving away from 4 defined seasons for many years now. These looser, less defined seasonal weather windows impact significantly on farmer’s decisions around drilling dates.

“For instance, are farmers now drilling earlier to avoid the risk of prolonged wet weather in late Autumn?  Inclement weather also creates an issue linked to the chemistry we use to support our varieties – can it still be applied to the crop in a timely fashion to get the maximum efficacy from the product?

“With increasingly unpredictable weather and uncertainty over new chemical approvals, one of the few things that farmers still have total control over is the varieties they want to grow. When assessing any variety against key diseases like Septoria, growers have access to a 5 year data set, so they’re getting a significant amount of information to base their decision on.

“Balancing higher resistance scores – particularly on Septoria and yellow rust, against potential yield has to be a sensible move for growers right now, and, with the joint second highest Septoria score on the RL coupled with a treated yield of 106%, Sparkler has to be in the conversation for any farmer growing winter wheat for the feed or distilling markets.

“Whether its drilled early or late, on heavy or light land, or in a first or second wheat position, it delivers consistently high yields. And for those growers who prefer a later drilling slot, for example - following maize, then Sparkler also offers excellent fusarium resistance as well” he concludes.