Hot weather seen during the spring and summer of 2025 could lead to critical shortages of Christmas foods, such as potatoes, parsnips, and sprouts. 

That's according to new findings by food waste experts at BusinessWaste.co.uk. Researchers explored what impact this year's warm weather is having on harvest conditions and spoke to farmers for insight. 

Key findings:

• Some Christmas foods may be in short supply, such as potatoes, parsnips and sprouts. 

• Beer could also be in short supply, due to a rush harvest of grains and cereals

• Prices will likely rise for consumers

• Farmers require investment, government backing, and supermarket support 

• Consumers need to place more value on food

How hot has 2025 been?

The summer of 2025 was officially the hottest since records began in 18841 following an unusually dry spring with rainfall 40% below the long-term average, the driest spring in over 50 years. 

What does this mean for UK farming and food production?

This year's weather conditions may have a significant impact on agriculture and food production. Analysts have warned that harvests are likely to suffer dramatically, with particular blame placed on spring's dry weather, which affected farmers' ability to establish and manage their crops. 

Several foods, such as grains like wheat, barley, and oats, are expected to see yields far below normal. Field vegetable farmers have also reported poor conditions, with broccoli and cauliflower producers claiming lower rates of production, while livestock farmers also struggled to grow enough grass for their cattle and sheep. 

Which foods are affected and why?

There's evidence to suggest there will be shortages of key Christmas foods, including:

• Root vegetables: crops such as carrots, potatoes, and parsnips all require the soil to be consistently moist. This year's hot and dry weather has had a clear impact. Reports have shown that many of these vegetables had to be harvested early, and the British Growers Association warned back in August of significantly reduced yields.

• Brassicas: common winter staples such as cabbage, sprouts, and cauliflower all fall under the brassica family. However, these crops are also very water-hungry, meaning that yields are affected by current weather. Farmers expressed concern that we may see smaller and poorer quality yields this year. 

• Cereals and grains: due to plants being stressed by hot weather, many grains have rushed to ripen earlier, bringing harvests forward. This usually results in lower yields, as supported by research from the AHDB

• It could have a knock-on effect on foods such as bread, stuffing, and even beer.

It's important to note that in the UK we produce 62% of our own food, including 53% of our fresh vegetables. Importing food from abroad can help plug any shortages, but many regions are experiencing the same issues. 

Will this increase food costs?

Usually, supermarkets rely on a 'just in time' supply chain model, which means there's little option for storage. This is designed to cut costs and waste, but it can be prone to issues when there are shortages. 

As a result, some reports suggest that farmgate prices for root crops could spike 30-50% if shortages materialise. 

This will be another blow to consumers already experiencing high food bills, and experts predict that 'climateflation' will continue to rise, pushing up food prices by more than a third by 2050.

Where UK supermarkets look to source produce from other countries, this can help provide much-needed produce, but will result in raised costs. 

Impact on farmers and food producers

Utilising Reddit, we spoke to farmers from across the UK who have reported that 2025's record heat and dry conditions have created a challenging harvest. 

• Potato growers, for example, highlighted that yields are down due to both the heat and restrictions on irrigation. One industry insider explained:

"Yields are down this year as you'd expect from the heat and irrigation permits being pulled. Expect higher prices for spuds and spuds derived products."

• Some farmers did note minor benefits from the dry weather, such as reduced harvesting costs and easier storage:

"Harvesting costs are reduced if it's fairly dry, cleaning takes less time and work, and the potatoes store better. Some years if it's been really wet the harvest has gone into November and some fields were abandoned altogether."

• However, livestock and hay farmers reported more severe impacts. In North Yorkshire, for example, hay yields fell dramatically, pushing up costs for winter feed:

"Fields usually yield around 60 bales of hay, this year, only 22... Hay has gone from around £20 a bale to £45+ where we live. It will all have a knock-on effect on food prices later."

• Other regions saw more positive outcomes, reflecting local conditions. A farmer in the Dales reported:

"Spring barley did very well, rape seed has been superb, and the potato crop has done well too... the crops that have done well have been things planted that benefitted from the soil and the rain conditions in the area."

• However, even in areas with better yields, farmers face limitations for next year:

"Of course the issue with the potatoes is that the fields that were successful this year can't have potatoes in them again next year."

• Others emphasised that weather extremes have left farmers at the mercy of climate conditions, with consequences for food supply:

"Farmers everywhere were even using winter stores to feed livestock in the summer as the grass just wasn't growing... leading to potential shortages in feed for livestock and escalating prices in the winter and spring."

These first-hand accounts highlight the urgent need for investment in technology, government support, and fair deals from supermarkets to help farmers manage climate pressures and ensure a reliable food supply for consumers.

Mark Hall, food waste expert at BusinessWaste.co.uk, shares his thoughts on what changes need to be made:

"Food waste is a growing issue, but what many people don't realise is how much food is lost before it even reaches our table. While the majority is wasted by households at 60%, farms see a 15% food waste rate, manufacturing sits at 13%, hospitality and food waste is a 10% share, while retail sees 2% food wastage8.

"When it comes to consumer waste, lack of education and awareness around food spoilage contributes heavily to wastage. At the farming and food production stage, a huge driver is climate change. Unpredictable weather can disrupt crops and supply chains and shorten the lifespan of fresh produce. 

"At a household level, we need to see more education on food waste. Alongside this, it's important that people place more value on food. Consumers should embrace wonky or ugly produce, make use of leftovers, and only buy what they need. However, as climate change worsens, it's vital we also address food waste at the production stage. Farmers will need investment in technology and alternative crops, government support, and a fair deal from supermarkets and retail."