What are the foods businesses should be watching?

The foods most at risk are those that rely heavily on a small number of producing countries, particularly where El Niño could bring hotter, drier or more erratic conditions.

1. Rice is one commodity that may be affected, as India, Thailand and Vietnam are major producers of rice, and each could face weather disruption from El Niño. Weaker harvests in any of these markets could affect export volumes and push up prices, mainly affecting countries that depend on imports from them.² 

2. Coffee is another product to watch, especially given the UK's reliance on Brazil and Vietnam for coffee exports. The prices in these countries are already volatile, with UK coffee import prices from Brazil rising by 77% in 2025 and prices from Vietnam increasing by 39%.¹ Any further pressure on harvests could contribute to continued price fluctuations.

3. Cocoa is another commodity which has been hit with price volatility, as much of the world's supply comes from West Africa. UK cocoa bean import prices from Côtɵ d'Ivoire doubled in 2025, which highlights how quickly costs can rise when harvests are hit.¹

4. Fresh fruit and vegetables are another food group that may be under pressure later this year. Due to its climate, the UK is heavily reliant on overseas production, importing 86% of fruit in 2025, with 88% of bananas coming from South America, a region where El Niño can bring extreme heat and heavy rainfall.¹ If growing conditions are affected, this could have some impact on supply and pricing.

5. Tea is another product businesses may need to watch out for. Around 58% of UK tea imports came from Africa in 2025, with Kenya the largest supplier. Hotter conditions or prolonged dry spells across parts of Africa could affect yields, which means the UK may need to look at alternative suppliers.¹

However, this doesn't mean that these products will suddenly become unavailable. Instead, a more realistic possibility is that businesses and consumers could see greater price volatility and a less predictable supply, particularly if major producing regions all experience weaker harvests at the same time.

How supply disruption could affect food waste

Supply problems don't necessarily mean businesses will waste more food, although it can make food waste harder to control, particularly for businesses working with fresh ingredients or tight margins.

One area to watch is over-ordering, particularly if businesses start buying more stock while it is available or before prices rise again. That may be manageable for products with a long shelf life, but the same doesn't apply for fresh produce, where businesses can quickly end up having excess stock, which could quickly turn into food waste.

A second issue is unpredictable deliveries, as restaurants, caterers and manufacturers often plan around fairly regular volumes and delivery days, so changes to those patterns can make stock rotation more difficult. Deliveries arriving earlier, later or in different quantities than expected may leave businesses holding overlapping stock or ingredients with less usable life remaining.

Some businesses may also need to switch suppliers or ingredients at short notice, leaving them with stock originally bought for a dish that is no longer being made the same way. The same also applies to menu changes, especially if an ingredient only has one obvious use and cannot easily be moved into another dish.

Higher prices are another consideration businesses may need to make. Even where the amount of food being wasted does not change, the financial value of that waste can. Businesses may therefore need to look not only at how many kilograms of food are being thrown away, but also which ingredients are accounting for the greatest cost.

Fresh produce is another area where businesses may feel the pressure, because any change in sourcing, transport or growing conditions can affect quality and shelf life as well as availability. As fresh produce generally has a shorter usable life, businesses may have less time to sell or use stock before it becomes waste.

If products are likely to be affected by El Niño, there is a chance that UK prices for these will be affected. What this means for businesses already dealing with food waste is that they could find the same level of waste carries a higher financial cost.

The key point is that a more volatile supply chain can make food waste harder to manage. Instead, businesses should focus on getting their ordering, stock rotation and menu planning correct now, as this will become more important when prices and availability are less predictable.

Mark Hall, commercial food waste collection expert at BusinessWaste.co.uk, said:

"Businesses may want to use El Niño as a prompt to review how dependent they are on particular suppliers, countries and ingredients. For some, that could simply mean having a clearer picture of where key ingredients come from and what products or dishes rely on them most heavily.

"Procurement teams may also find it useful to speak to suppliers earlier and consider what realistic alternatives are available, particularly for ingredients that are difficult to replace at short notice. In hospitality, this could include identifying dishes where substitutions would be relatively straightforward if needed.

"It may be worth reviewing food costs more regularly, given that commodity markets move very quickly. Keeping a closer eye on changes can give businesses a better understanding of where margins are growing tighter, meaning they can make any necessary changes quicker.

"We're not saying businesses need to assume El Niño will lead to major disruption, but they can use this as a reason to have a clearer view of their supply chain and a little more flexibility if conditions do become a little less predictable."